Mid Market Home Resources Nurture Mid Market Resources Starting your export journey Growing your export business Industry and sector resources World Risk Developments World Risk Developments 2025 World Risk Developments February 2025 Australia—US trade policy uncertainty an indirect headwind to exports World—Policy uncertainty to define the 2025 economic outlook India—Budget to boost consumption amid slower economic growth Europe—Weak economic outlook and increasing risks ASEAN—Robust economic growth susceptible to external shocks Australia—Falling commodity exports and increasing volatility World Risk Developments March 2025 Australia—US tariffs take effect, diversified exports insulate economy China—Growth steady ‘around 5%’ despite rising external pressures US—Economic exceptionalism to continue, but risks mount Vietnam—Economic outperformance at risk from trade disruptions Australia—Robust tourism supports continued services export growth World—High global debt could strain economic resilience World Risk Developments 2024 World Risk Developments February 2024 World—‘Soft landing’ forecast in 2024 but downside risks dominate India—Rising capital spending offers Australian export opportunities Indonesia—Focus to remain on enhancing the business environment China—Stock and property market slump drags on confidence World—Red Sea hostilities raise risk of inflationary trade bottlenecks Advanced economies—Inflation converging to target, but risks remain World Risk Developments March 2024 China—Ambitious 5% growth target faces headwinds Australia—Agriculture exports ease, but diversification mitigates risks PNG—Social and political instability threaten positive economic outlook Advanced economies—Risks to buoyant markets threaten real economy Pakistan—Economic stability key challenge for new government Southeast Asia—Robust economy offers Australian export prospects World Risk Developments April 2024 Australia—Wine exports to recover slowly after China lifts tariffs Australia—Long term critical minerals’ export prospects remain intact Europe—Two-speed recovery highlights shifting economic fortunes Japan—Mild inflation and rising wages end negative interest rates South Korea—Growing AI demand supports export upswing Australia—Concerns over demand conditions overtake supply issues World Risk Developments May 2024 Australia — Outbound FDI rises but reorientates away from ASEAN Australia — Critical minerals need more investment to meet climate goals Global — Trade accelerating but geopolitical tensions remain a threat Australia — Volatile security landscape drives defence export prospects UK — Easing inflationary pressures see economic momentum improve Asia — Continues to drive global growth, but currency pressures mount World Risk Developments June 2024 India — Elections imply policy continuity with added reform challenges US — Economic resilience delays monetary easing as trade risks rise Taiwan — Robust economic outlook vulnerable to political risk Australia — Services exports recover strongly even as headwinds mount Vietnam — Economic growth accelerating despite slow policymaking South Africa — New coalition government bodes well for critical reforms World Risk Developments July 2024 China—Record imports from Australia, but economic headwinds mount France—Political stalemate increases risk of EU financial stress Australia—Rising investment and exploration supports mining services India — Bond inclusion to boost capital inflows and economic growth Global — Advanced economies lead the way in AI preparedness Pakistan — US$7 billion IMF bailout provides reprieve amid debt crisis World Risk Developments August 2024 World—Prolonged financial turbulence could undermine ‘soft landing’ Bangladesh—Political instability exacerbates economic risks China—Property and consumer troubles raise Australian exports risk Philippines—Economic growth resilient as geopolitical risks persist GCC—Reforms and investment support diversification efforts World Risk Developments September 2024 China—Worsening deflation adds to economic troubles Indonesia—High-income status by 2045 will require structural reforms Malaysia—Growing incomes bolster Australian export opportunities Thailand—Economic recovery despite political volatility risks Australia—Wine exports rise as markets diversify beyond China World—Falling productivity growth drags on economic prospects World Risk Developments October 2024 Australia—Weak demand, cost pressures raise business insolvencies Advanced economies—Declining inflation supports consumer spending Asia—Economic resilience supported by trade recovery Hong Kong—New initiatives aim to spur economic growth Sri Lanka—Economic recovery in train as new President takes office PNG—Strong IMF reform progress but FX and economic issues persist World Risk Developments November 2024 Major export markets—Economic strength limits Emerging Asia risks Australia—Prospects for inward looking US policies create export risks China—Fiscal stimulus underwhelms amid increasing headwinds World—Financial risks reflect uncertainty and vulnerability Major export markets—Governance gains support Australian exports UAE—Free trade deal and economic growth fuel export opportunities World Risk Developments 2023 World Risk Developments December 2023 2023—Global economic resilience amid persistent challenges 2024—Global economic slowdown and continued moderation of inflation 2024—Economic prospects are uncertain and more likely to disappoint Export outlook—Goods moderate, as services recovery accelerates World Risk Developments November 2023 Major export markets—Emerging Asia mostly less exposed to risks World—Geopolitics drives risk of higher oil prices and stagflation Australia—Exports resilient, but tight labour markets challenge SMEs World—Record elections scheduled in 2024 increase policy uncertainty Advanced economies—High interest rates increase public debt risks Papua New Guinea—Progress on IMF reforms and LNG investment boosts prospects World Risk Developments October 2023 World—Economic recovery resilient but slow, with persistent risks China—Rising industrial demand supports Australian resources exports Japan—Export boom temporarily boosts economic performance US—Exceptional economic performance faces increasing headwinds Major exports markets—Stronger exports amid better governance Hong Kong—Economic challenges hit demand for Australian exports World Risk Developments September 2023 Euro area—Low growth and entrenched inflation suggest stagflation Indonesia—Robust economic growth raises incomes and middle class Thailand—New governing coalition to prioritise economy amid scrutiny Australia—World net zero path underpins demand for critical minerals Australia—Easing supply chain pressures support export confidence Pakistan—Protests threaten to derail crucial US$3 billion IMF program World Risk Developments August 2023 China—Weak domestic demand and external headwinds drag on growth Australia—Low AUD supports export competitiveness, lifts import costs Global—Trade slowdown hits Asia’s electronics exporters Pacific Islands—Australian visitors lift tourism as rest of the world lags Brazil—Reform momentum buoys investors' spirits, economic potential Bangladesh—Political tensions high as election approaches World Risk Developments July 2023 China—Deflation risks highlight weakening economic recovery Vietnam—Economic fundamentals sound, despite recent slowdown Emerging markets—Higher interest rates increase debt distress Australia—Travel recovery drives services exports to pre-COVID levels World—Housing slump weighs on economic activity, but risks contained Timor-Leste—Smooth political transition but economic uncertainty persists World Risk Developments June 2023 World—Sticky inflation raises business costs and hobbles consumption Asia—Elevated borrowing costs increase risk of corporate defaults Australia—Rising global defence spending drives export opportunities Australia—Clean energy investment boosts critical minerals exports Asia—Supply chain reconfiguration benefits parts of the region GCC—Diversification efforts increase Australian export opportunities World Risk Developments May 2023 US—Polarised debt ceiling debate has economic and financial costs China—Cyclical upturn could fade as structural challenges persist World—Likely El Niño to exacerbate manifold costs of climate change Australia—AI adoption creates benefits and challenges for businesses Thailand—Election win for pro-democracy opposition fuels uncertainty Australia—Global FDI declines as Australia invests more in Asia World Risk Developments April 2023 World—Long term growth slowdown reflects structural challenges Australia—Climate goals lift base metals and critical minerals exports PNG—IMF loan to improve business climate, economic diversification Asia—Growth outperformance buffers Australian exports Philippines—Strong growth and reforms boost Australian exports Sri Lanka—IMF bailout to ease economic crisis, but risks remain World Risk Developments March 2023 US—Banking stress signals financial stability risks as interest rates rise World—Fragmented globalisation will erode living standards Japan—Large wage hikes support household spending Australia—Small businesses vulnerable to rising cybercrime South Africa—Energy crisis raises economic, social and political risks Latin America—Slowing growth and high inflation fuel social tensions World Risk Developments February 2023 World—Turning point in 2023 as growth bottoms out and inflation falls India—Capital-intensive budget boosts Australia’s export opportunities Australia—Education export rebound boosted by China reopening Australia—China’s economic reopening buoys commodity demand UK—Bleakest outlook among G7 countries reflects structural problems Thailand—Economic outlook brightens as tourism recovery accelerates World Risk Developments 2022 World Risk Developments December 2022 2022—Australian exports benefit from sharply higher commodity prices 2023—Global growth to slow further with inflation moderating gradually Economic prospects are highly uncertain and likely to disappoint Exports outlook—Clean energy transition boosts resources, as services recovery accelerates World Risk Developments November 2022 Emerging markets—Australia’s major export markets slow, as risks rise Asia—World trade slowdown will weigh on export-reliant economies Advanced Economies—Labour shortages exacerbate export headwinds Malaysia—Robust economic outlook as political uncertainty persists Brazil—Lula’s fragile mandate will prolong policy uncertainty Bangladesh—IMF reforms to help strengthen business environment World Risk Developments October 2022 World—Economic and trade outlook deteriorates while risks increase Australia—Resources exports to diversify amid clean energy transition Indonesia—Strong economic fundamentals underpin bright outlook World—Financial volatility may erode economic prospects Major export markets—Stronger governance boosts Australia’s exports Australia—Beverage exports diversifying by market and product World Risk Developments September 2022 China—Extreme weather events compound economic challenges Emerging Markets—Higher borrowing costs worsen debt vulnerabilities Vietnam—Bright economic outlook raises investment opportunities Australia—Increasing regional solar uptake offers export opportunities Saudi Arabia—Economic outperformance and ambitious reform agenda PNG—Prime Minister’s re-election indicates political and policy stability World Risk Developments August 2022 World—Easing supply problems and commodity prices could reduce high inflation pressures China—Property market downturn raises economic and financial risks Australia—Services exports rising gradually following border reopening Japan—Weaker yen and higher inflation hit consumers and businesses World—Russian gas cut would raise global energy prices, dent growth World—Another La Niña may further disrupt food output and lift prices World Risk Developments July 2022 United States—Soaring inflation raises economic and financial risks China—Policy support to boost a sharply slowing economy Germany—Europe’s faltering export powerhouse raises recession risk Chile—Draft constitution may erode investment climate Africa—Large upcoming debt maturities raise refinancing risk Fiji—Strong tourism recovery boosts growth prospects World Risk Developments June 2022 Advanced Economies—Declining real wages erode consumer spending Emerging Markets—Tight financial conditions dent economic prospects Australia—Record agricultural exports but rising global food insecurity Asia—Fading export engine hits economic recoveries Papua New Guinea—Progress on gas projects, but election risks loom Turkey—High inflation and low interest rates threaten economic crisis World Risk Developments May 2022 Emerging Markets—Asia most at risk from China slowdown World—Multiple economic headwinds raise recession risk World—Foreign investment jumps as Australia invests more in Asia Australia—Exporters face rising costs and ongoing supply disruptions United Kingdom—High energy prices drive stagflation Philippines—New President to maintain infrastructure investment drive World Risk Developments April 2022 Australia—Record resources and energy exports drive investment Asia-Pacific—Tourism rebound limited by China’s mobility restrictions Australia—Trade agreement with India boosts export opportunities World—Chip shortages create persistent challenge for manufacturers World—Prolonged high fertiliser prices could worsen food insecurity Pakistan—Political uncertainty raises economic and financial risks World Risk Developments March 2022 Australia—Ukraine invasion weighs on non-resources export outlook Emerging markets—High food prices raise social risks Global—High energy prices dent growth, complicate monetary policy Emerging markets—Higher interest rates increase debt distress risks Hong Kong—COVID outbreak exacerbates economic challenges Australia—Exports find new markets amid Chinese trade disruptions World Risk Developments February 2022 Global—Omicron slows economic recovery, as risks to growth rise Australia—Higher global inflation and interest rates add risks to exports Global—Supply chain pressures may have peaked China—Growth moderates as COVID-19 challenges loom India—Infrastructure push may increase growth potential Indonesia—Faster economic growth faces headwinds in 2022 World Risk Developments 2021 World Risk Developments December 2021 2021—Exports rise amid strong world demand and commodity prices 2022—Global economic recovery to continue at a slower pace The global economic outlook is complex and precarious Exports outlook—Ongoing commodities strength, as services recover World Risk Developments November 2021 World—Economic growth will be constrained by supply into 2022 Emerging markets—Australia’s major export markets recovering, but risks remain high Australia—Net zero emissions by 2050 would alter export profile Australia—Exports resilient to geopolitical shocks Emerging markets—Public spending cuts to weigh on economic growth Indonesia—Reform momentum will help sustain economic recovery World Risk Developments October 2021 World—Strong economic momentum slips while uncertainty rises Australia—Energy demand drives record-high commodities exports China—Common prosperity may accelerate shift to consumption Major export markets—Better governance supports Australia’s exports US—Debt limit uncertainty raises economic and fiscal risks UAE—Diversification efforts accelerate amid decarbonisation targets World Risk Developments September 2021 China—Heavily leveraged property sector poses a risk to economic outlook Emerging markets—Interest rate hikes compound growth challenges Australia—Higher prices and bumper harvest to drive a record $54.7 billion of agriculture exports Thailand—Reopening signals beginning of protracted tourism recovery Guinea—Military’s assumption of power may impact on commodity markets Low-income countries—IMF support boosts recovery prospects World Risk Developments August 2021 Emerging Asia—Delta outbreak threatens economic recovery US—Expected stimulus continues to drive global economic prospects Asia—Elevated B2B payment delays indicate business stress Vietnam—Easing geopolitical risks boost trade and investment outlook Global—Policy shifts to curb demand for carbon-intensive commodities Malaysia—Pandemic and political uncertainty weaken economic outlook World Risk Developments July 2021 China—Slowing domestic economy prompts fresh stimulus Australia—Multilateralism supports exports, despite Chinese distortions Australia—Demand for iron ore and base metals lifts resources exports Emerging Asia—Exports and financial buffers support resilience to US rate hikes Pacific—Lagging in the worsening global two-track recovery South Africa—Social unrest undermines business confidence World Risk Developments June 2021 Southeast Asia—Variants and lagging vaccinations frustrate recovery Australia—Proposed pilot plans may support education exports Australia—Free trade agreement with UK to boost export opportunities Australia—Container shipping delays and costs frustrate export outlook PNG—Progress on Papua LNG development brightens economic prospects Chile—COVID-19 cases surge despite high vaccination rate World Risk Developments May 2021 Australia—Iron ore to China drives export performance India—Surging COVID-19 infections hit recovery World—Savings stockpile may boost post-COVID export prospects South Korea—Solid manufacturing recovery benefits Australian exports Philippines—Recovery fragile following largest recession in history Colombia—Civil unrest as pandemic accentuates social discontent World Risk Developments April 2021 World—Economic prospects improve, but diverge Emerging markets—US fiscal stimulus could boost export opportunities Bangladesh—Strong economic performance but challenging outlook Australia—Quarantine-free safe travel zone with New Zealand to boost some service industries Nepal—Political volatility undermines economic prospects Brazil—COVID-19 weighs on economic and political stability World Risk Developments March 2021 Global—Falling international prices would hurt commodity exporters Pacific—Tourism faces challenges and opportunities beyond pandemic India—Fast recovery in 2021 as government ramps up spending Global—Destabilising inflation risks limited by structural factors Global—Debt raises global financial market risks Myanmar—Political upheaval weakens economic prospects World Risk Developments February 2021 World—Vaccine powered boost to activity is partial and uncertain World—Trade rebound challenged by virus risks, shipping costs Asia—Despite resilience, weak FDI to weigh on sustainable recovery US—Fiscal stimulus to support economic recovery China—Five-year plan highlights domestic goals, but risks higher debt World—Bankruptcies to rise as policy support is removed
